Arizona vs BYU Odds, Picks & +EV Week 2: Finding Value On The Wildcats
The Arizona Wildcats head to Provo as a 7.5-point underdog against the No. 15 BYU Cougars, but the moneyline is already showing a little +EV juice on the Wildcats. NoVig is offering Arizona at +257, compared to an average of +242 across the rest of the books. That’s not a massive edge, but you’re still getting a better price than the market average before we even get to player props. The bigger edge right now comes from BYU’s Kyler Kasper, whose OVER 2.5 receptions is sitting at +110 at DraftKings, which our optimizer gives a 6.2% EV edge over the fair odds of -102.
Arizona vs BYU Odds - Week 2
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Wildcats | +257 (at NoVig) | +7.5 (+590 at Circa) | O 48.5 |
| BYU Cougars | -335 | -7.5 | U 48.5 |
Odds as of September 11 at 3:30 PM ET
Arizona vs BYU Analysis
The Cougars are coming off a ridiculous 63-7 win over Utah Tech, scoring 42 points before halftime and making the afternoon feel like a breeze. Bear Bachmeier looked sharp in his debut, completing 16 of 20 passes for 198 yards and three touchdowns while adding a rushing score. BYU also got a huge game from its ground attack, which is going to be a major part of the challenge for Arizona.
The problem with using that 63-7 score as a measuring stick is pretty obvious. Utah Tech is not Arizona.
The Wildcats opened their season with a noble 35-7 win over Northern Arizona, and Noah Fifita looked like a quarterback who has been doing this for a while. The senior completed 76% of his passes and finished with 279 yards and two touchdowns, while Giovanni Richardson was the standout target with nine catches for 113 yards.
That experience matters here. Arizona isn't breaking in a new quarterback or trying to figure out what its offense is supposed to look like. Fifita already has plenty of snaps under his belt, and the Wildcats showed in Week 1 that they can move the ball consistently.
Arizona also ran for 206 yards in the opener, which could be important against a BYU team that would love nothing more than to turn this into a ground-game contest. The Cougars averaged 308 rushing yards against Utah Tech, running five scores into the endzone. But they'll face a much stiffer test against Arizona, who finished top 25 in the nation allowing 127 rushing yards per game last season and didn’t give up any to the Lumberjacks in Week 1.
BYU has won the last five meetings, including a wild 33-27 double-overtime game last season, so there is some recent history favoring the Cougars. But Arizona already showed last year that it can make this matchup uncomfortable, and Fifita is the Wildcats’ best chance to keep things competitive and by moving the ball consistently.
Ultimately, I expect BYU to have the better day, especially with the home crowd behind it, but I don't love laying more than a touchdown with the Cougars against an Arizona team that should be able to score. If the Wildcats keep this within one or two possessions, the +257 moneyline price becomes an interesting number from an EV perspective, even if the outright upset is still the less likely outcome.
Arizona vs BYU +EV Opportunities This Week
Kyler Kasper is the headline. His OVER 2.5 receptions sits at +110 at DraftKings and grades out at a 6.2% edge against fair odds of -102, but the real story is how far DraftKings is from everybody else. ProphetX has the same bet at -133. FanDuel and Caesars are both at -114. Hard Rock is -110. That's a 40-cent spread on one prop, and it exists because nobody knows what Kasper is yet. The 6-foot-6 Oregon transfer caught six passes for 77 yards in 23 games as a Duck and is now a starter in an offense that just spread the ball to nine different receivers, but involved him with 42 yards across four receptions.
Our highest-rated play is Giovanni Richardson UNDER 3.5 receptions at 54.6%, and FanDuel is the only book posting it at +106. Fair warning on this one: Richardson caught nine balls for 113 yards last week and is clearly Fifita's favorite target. The argument for the Under is the opponent, since BYU forced four turnovers and allowed 52 first-half yards in its opener. Still, fading a team's No. 1 receiver off a nine-catch game is one to be cautious about.