+EV Picks Today: See Prop Professor Staff Plays

Each and every day the Prop Professor staff members are scanning the various site tools, looking for sharp +EV plays and hopping on them as quickly as possible. This page will be your go-to spot to see what the team likes and why so you can decide whether you want to tail or fade – though tailing is more fun. Our records will be transparently displayed at the bottom of the sheet as well.

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+EV Plays Today – Sept 4th, 2026

Below is the full list of picks today, where the professor found it onsite, and why they like it.

UFC: Hooker vs Parnasse UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-155 at DraftKings) Saturday Play

Scott Hastings – September 3, 10:00 AM ET

On the smart money tool there is a play on this week’s UFC main event in France between Dan Hooker and Salahdine Parnasse to go UNDER 2.5 rounds with the best odds coming at DraftKings with -155 odds. There is large liquidity, over $13,000, on the OVER 2.5 (+169) at Polymarket, signalling a lot of sharp action, upwards of $8,000, on the UNDER 2.5 at -169. DraftKings has the line at -155 so we’re getting even more value on this play at about 3.36%.

This is the UFC debut for Parnasse who is the former KSW lightweight and featherweight champion and enters this fight riding a six-fight winning streak, all by knockout and all going UNDER 2.5 rounds. Dan Hooker is as tough as an old leather boot, but has been stopped in under 2.5 rounds in each of his last two fights and each of his last five losses as well, of which he’s a large +425 underdog to win this weekend. Look for Parnasse to debut in a big way on his home soil of France

US Open: Carlos Alcaraz -9.5 (-338 at FanDuel)

Josie Costigan – September 4, 1:00 PM ET

I got Alcaraz -9.5 at +338, so $100 wins me $338. The base price was +260, and FanDuel's 30% boost turned it into +338, now the best number available anywhere. Next best on the board is +267. At that price, the bet only needs to land 23% of the time to be worth it. Every sportsbook on the board has it closer to 29%, the market average; that's their own prices de-vigged, not my guess.

Using the average fair price of +242 and comparing it to the price I snagged at +338, that's an EV of 28.1%. I’m not saying Alcaraz wins by 10 games, but I'm saying I'm being overpaid for the chance he does.

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