Broncos vs Chiefs Odds, Picks & +EV For Week 1: Back the Broncos on MNF
Familiar foes meet once again in the first week of the NFL season as the Denver Broncos battle the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs are 2.5-point home favorites, with the best odds at NoVig, and the total sits at 43.5 points.
Find all the odds and our +EV picks for Monday Night Football and always check out our odds screen for the latest NFL odds.
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Broncos vs Chiefs Odds Week 1
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | +125 (NoVig) | +2.5 (+101 4cx) | O43.5 (-104 NoVig) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -130 (4cx) | -2.5 (-100 NoVig) | U43.5 (-100 NoVig) |
Odds as of September 13th at 11am ET
Broncos vs Chiefs Analysis
For the first time in almost a decade, the Chiefs don’t enter a matchup against the Broncos as the obviously better team. Remember, the Broncos won the AFC West last season, earned the No. 1 seed, and reached the AFC Championship game. Kansas City went 6-11 and missed the playoffs for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Denver also left both meetings against Kansas City with a win last year, coming away with a 22-19 win in Week 11 before emerging with a 20-13 victory on Christmas Day.
Mahomes completed 29 of 45 passes for 276 yards, one touchdown and one interception in that first meeting, as was didn’t play in the second. Kansas City struggled to finish drives against Denver’s menacing defense which paints a picture for this matchup.
The Chiefs have scored 19 or fewer points in four consecutive Mahomes starts against the Broncos. Over those four games, he’s thrown three touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt. As a result his passing yardage total is set at just 229.5 yards, with the best odds on the OVER at DraftKings +104, and the UNDER at -115 at Dabble.
Crucially, Chiefs left tackle Josh Simmons has been ruled out for this matchup, leaving undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson to protect Mahomes’ blindside. That’s less than ideal as Kansas City allowed a pressure on 39% of dropbacks when Simmons was off the field last season. That makes backing the Chiefs as favorites a tough play for me, especially after the mass exodus of defensive talent.
Kansas City lost started Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook from their secondary. On the flip side, Denver pulled off a stunning trade for former first-round pick Jaylen Waddle adding a dynamic playmaker to their receiver core. That makes Waddle’s props very interesting on Monday Night, and you can bet his OVER 56.5 receiving yards at -112 over at DraftKings.
Denver playing at Arrowhead will trigger a ton of bad memories for Broncos fans, particularly in the last decade. Still, the Broncos have the better defense, more talent in the trenches, and a healthier roster heading into this Week 1 showdown.
Be sure to monitor our Smart Money tool as kickoff approaches, as the market will likely push the spread to Kansas City -3, opening up some real value on the Broncos as underdogs.
Broncos vs Chiefs +EV Opportunities Week 1
JK Dobbins rushing yards gives us a juicy +EV play for this MNF matchup. We have the advantage of betting on the Broncos to lean on their defense and rushing attack to lead them to victory. Most other sportsbooks have this priced at anywhere from +176 to +235, offering clear value on Dobbins rushing yards.
Dobbins averaged 5 yards per carry last season, ranking seventh among all backs with at least 100 carries. He produced a positive run on 42.5% of his carries while averaging a stellar 3.18 yards after contact per attempt. Denver also ran the ball on nearly 60% of plays with Dobbins on the field, giving us a solid path to 70 rushing yards.