Clemson vs UNC Odds, Picks & +EV Week 3: Dabo's Freshman QB
North Carolina travels to Death Valley as a 3.5-point underdog against Clemson, with the total sitting at 43.5 points. The real edge is on the spread and in the props. UNC +3.5 is -106 at NoVig versus -115 across the rest of the board, and Tait Reynolds' OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns is +235 at DraftKings, which our optimizer grades at 7.1%.
Clemson vs UNC Odds - Week 3
| Team | Moneyline | Point Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson Tigers | -160 (at NoVig) | -3.5 (+101 at ProphetX) | O 43.5 |
| UNC Tar Heels | +153 (at NoVig) | +3.5 (-106 at NoVig) | U 43.5 |
Odds as of September 16 at 2:30 PM ET
Clemson vs UNC Analysis
Bill Belichick walks into Death Valley with a 2-0 team, and Dabo Swinney answers by handing the ball to true freshman, Tait Reynolds, making his first career start.
Clemson's offense has been one of the worst in the country averaging 16.0 points per game on 246 yards a night. The lone win, 22-7 over Georgia Southern, included 15 points from Nolan Hauser's leg on five made field goals. Before that they were run out of Baton Rouge 51-10.
Reynolds gets the start because Christopher Vizzina hurt his elbow. The freshman is 20-of-33 for 200 yards on the season with no touchdowns and no interceptions.
North Carolina is 2-0 because of its defense. The Tar Heels rank seventh nationally at 6.5 points allowed, give up 268 yards a game and have allowed exactly one touchdown all season. They ground out a 15-10 win over TCU in Dublin, then handled East Tennessee State 35-3 behind Billy Edwards Jr.'s 15-of-20, 244-yard, two-touchdown afternoon.
The case for Clemson is history. North Carolina leads the series 40-18-1 but has lost seven straight to the Tigers, including 38-10 in last year's ACC opener. I'll take the points anyway. A team scoring 16 a game with a first-time starter covering 3.5 against this defense is a lot to ask, and NoVig's -106 on North Carolina +3.5 is nine cents better than the market average.
Clemson vs UNC +EV Opportunities This Week
TJ Moore OVER 4 receptions is the best number on our board this week at 60.2%, and FanDuel is where you take it. Everyone else is posted at 4.5, DraftKings -120, Fliff -118, Dabble -130, while FanDuel has it at 3.5 for -130. That's a free half-catch on Clemson's clear number one, who caught seven balls for 103 yards against Georgia Southern.
Tait Reynolds OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns is the other one, +235 at DraftKings for 7.1%, and the spread across books is enormous. PrizePicks is +212, Bally Bet +195, FanDuel and Dabble +178, Fliff +128, one book all the way down at +100. Be cautious, though. Reynolds has no touchdown passes in 33 career attempts and he's facing a defense that has allowed one all year. The edge lives entirely in the price, so if you can't get +235, skip it.