Dream vs Valkyries Odds & +EV Picks Today: Skip The Sides
The Atlanta Dream and Golden State Valkyries meet in San Francisco on Monday night for Game 5 of a Finals tied 2-2, and the sides are a coin flip. Golden State is a one-point favorite, and neither moneyline is really worth touching, with NoVig's +104 on the Dream being the best number in a market that averages -103.
Dream vs Valkyries Odds - Game 5
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Dream | +104 (at NoVig) | +1 (-110 at BetOnline) | O 149.5 (-105 at TheScore) |
| Golden State Valkyries | -114 (at Bally) | -1 (-110 at BetOnline) | U 149.5 (-103 at Bally) |
Odds as of October 25 at 10:30 AM ET
Dream vs Valkyries Analysis
Two franchises that have never won anything are two wins from a title, and after four games nobody has any idea who’s better. Golden State took Game 1 68-64, Atlanta answered 79-65 and 97-71, Golden State came back and won Game 4 67-62. A 26-point blowout on Wednesday, a five-point grind on Saturday, and both teams have already stolen one on the other's floor.
That history matters most against the total. These four games have an average of 143.2 against a line of 149.5, with three of the four landing UNDER tonight’s total.
The sides are basically a coin flip. Take out the books’ cut and the market has Atlanta at about 48% and Golden State at about 52%. That tiny gap is just Golden State playing at home, and home hasn’t meant much in this series. So where’s the +EV? Not on the sides. Take the books’ cut out and the market has Atlanta at 48% and Golden State at 52%, which is about as close to a coin flip as you’ll see. The spread is -110 both ways. The best moneyline price anywhere, +104 on Atlanta at NoVig, still grades at roughly -1.3% EV. The total is the cheapest of the three at -105 and -103, but even those land around -2%. There is no +EV bet on this game outside the player props.
Dream vs Valkyries +EV Opportunities
Jordin Canada UNDER 18.5 points and assists is the best play here at 52.8%, and FanDuel is the only book at even money. DraftKings and Caesars charge -104, NoVig and ProphetX -108. At +100 that's a 5.6% edge. At -108 the same bet loses money.
Kaila Charles UNDER 12.5 points and rebounds is the other even-money play at Caesars. It grades 52.4%, which works out to a 4.8% edge. In her first start of the series she had five points and fiv rebounds, which adds up to 10 against a line of 12.5. Don't chase it to FanDuel, which has her at 11.5. There she'd need 11 or fewer instead of 12 or fewer, and the UNDER costs -136 instead of +100. Tougher number, worse price, and the 52.4% doesn't apply to it.
Angel Reese is the wild card here, and the reason her prop is priced the way it is. She went for 30 points and 16 rebounds in Game 2. In Game 4 she shot 2-of-12 and finished with eight. The books have to pick a number somewhere in the middle of that.