Falcons vs Saints Odds & +EV For Week 4: Falcons Set to Fly on MNF
Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons meet Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints in a Week 4 Monday Night Football showdown. This NFC South foes know each other well, with the Falcons having gone 4-2 SU in their last six against New Orleans, including two straight victories. The Saints are 2.5-point home favorites in this one, with the total sitting at 47.5 points.
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Falcons vs Saints Odds Week 4
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | +115 (NoVig) | +2.5 (-110 ReBet) | O47.5 (+102 NoVig) |
| New Orleans Saints | -117 (NoVig) | -2.5 (+111 NoVig) | U47.5 (-100 NoVig) |
Odds as of Oct. 4th
Falcons vs Saints Week 4 Analysis
Two young gunslingers go head-to-head on Monday Night Football as Michael Penix Jr. tries to keep the Falcons momentum rolling against Tyler Shough and the Saints.
Penix has the advantage of simply turning around and handing the ball to the man behind him, as Bijan Robinson is the engine of the Falcons offense. Bijan is one of the NFL’s most dangerous skill position players, and he always forces defenses to respect the run, which opens up the passing game for the Falcons. That’s why Bijan’s rushing yardage line is set at 85.5 for Falcons vs Saints, with the odds at -104 for both the OVER and UNDER.
The biggest question mark in this game is whether New Orleans can force Atlanta into obvious passing situations. Last time out, the Packers shut down the Falcons rushing attack for two series, and we saw the result. But, then Bijan got loose, and Atlanta ran away with a Thursday Night Football victory. They’ll look to do the same on Monday night. Penix has the talent to attack every area of the field, and with his passing yardage total set at 225.5 yards I lean towards the OVER at -115 odds at HardRock.
On the other side of the field, Shough continues to establish himself as the long term answer in New Orleans. While inconsistent, he’s made the Saints offense look dangerous and displays the talent to layer throws to all levels of the field. Atlanta’s defense will certainly test the Saints protections on Monday, and test Shough’s ability to make good decisions with the football.
Divisional games are always tight, and this NFC South clash should be no different. Having said that, I believe the Falcons have the more complete offense, and especially with Travis Etienne set to miss this one, a far better supporting cast around their young quarterback. I’m betting Penix, Bijan Robinson and Drake London can continue to orchestrate explosive plays and lead the Falcons to victory as +115 underdogs.
Falcons vs Saints +EV Opportunities Week 4
Kyle Pitts OVER 29.5 receiving yards is my favorite +EV play for Falcons vs Saints. We’re getting Pitts to hit 30 yards at +102 odds over at BetRivers, which represents a +2.8% play, as our fair odds sit at -103.
It’s not a huge value, but I like Pitts to have a game against the Saints defense. The former first-round pick has hit this number in two of his last three games against New Orleans, and the Saints defense has looked vulnerable against opposing tight ends so far this season.
Additionally, the Saints defense sits 30th in receptions allowed to tight ends per game (6.5), and 27th in receiving yards per game surrendered to the position at 64.1. There will be plenty of room for Pitts to operate on Monday night, as such I’m backing the OVER 29.5 receiving yards at +102 odds.