Florida vs Georgia Odds, Picks & +EV Week 9: Fade The Props
Georgia is an 11.5-point favorite over Florida on Saturday afternoon, with the total at 56.5. The best number on the board is Florida's moneyline at +376 on NoVig, worth a 2.7% edge. The rest of the market averages +343, and at that price the same bet loses money. Gunner Stockton's UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns at +135 on Fliff is the other one we like, at 1.7% EV.
Florida vs Georgia Odds - Week 9
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Gators | +376 (at NoVig) | +11.5 (+102 at NoVig) | O 56.5 |
| Georgia Bulldogs | -388 (at NoVig) | -11.5 (-105 at HardRock) | U 56.5 |
Odds as of October 27 at 11:30 AM ET
Florida vs Georgia Analysis
Georgia is 6-1 and ranked No. 3, with its only loss coming to Auburn. Gunner Stockton has been the steadiest quarterback in the conference; 74.1% completions, 1,570 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions through seven games.
Florida is 5-2 under first-year coach Jon Sumrall and makes no sense at all. The Gators beat No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28 and went into Austin and knocked off No. 7 Texas 27-24. They also lost to Missouri by 28 and to South Carolina by 19. They beat Auburn, who beat Georgia.
The matchup problem is obvious. Florida's defense is one of the worst in the country, allowing over 400 yards oer game, and that's a rough place to be against the best quarterback in the SEC. The Gators' answer is to run the ball and keep Georgia's offense off the field. Jadan Baugh has carried 25 or more times in three of the last four, and Florida held the ball for over 38 minutes in the Texas win.
Now the prices. The spread is a wash, averaging -110 on Florida and -111 on Georgia. The moneyline is where the gap opens up, NoVig has Florida at +376 against a market average of +343, a full 33 cents clear.
Florida's moneyline at +376 on NoVig is the play of the week here, grading at a 2.7% edge. A fair price on the Gators is about +364, and almost nobody is close to it: FanDuel is +350, DraftKings and Caesars are both +340, Pinnacle is +336 and Kalshi is +331. There's $369 available at +376, which is real money rather than a token. Be clear on what it is, though as Florida is still a big underdog and this is a bet on the price, not a call that the Gators win.
Florida vs Georgia +EV Opportunities This Week
Gunner Stockton UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns +135 on Fliff is grading 1.7%. A fair price here is +131, which is exactly what PrizePicks is offering. Fliff is paying four cents more than the bet is worth. Everyone else is on the wrong side of that: Dabble at +124 is -3.1%, Bovada at +110 is -9.1%, FanDuel at +108 is -10%. Our model gives this a 43.3% chance, so it does not expect Stockton to be held to one touchdown pass after he's thrown 16 in seven games, about 2.3 a night.
The rest of the board we checked and passed on. Lawson Luckie UNDER 24.5 receiving yards grades 50.5% with a best price of -109, so -3.2% EV. Talyn Taylor UNDER 44.5 receiving yards is 50.4% at -110, or -3.8% EV. Stockton UNDER 241.5 passing yards, Craig Dandridge UNDER 44.5 receiving yards and Jadan Baugh UNDER 7.5 receiving yards all grade 50.2% at -112, which puts each one at -5% EV.