LSU vs Ole Miss Odds, Picks & +EV Week 3: Kiffin vs His Old Team
The No. 7 LSU Tigers head to Oxford as 3-point favorites against the No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels, but the moneyline is where the value is hiding. NoVig has Ole Miss at +147, while the rest of the market averages +133. The bigger edge is on the prop side with Sam Leavitt’s UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns sitting at +125 at Hard Rock, which our optimizer grades at a 10.1% EV edge.
LSU vs Ole Miss Odds - Week 3
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU Tigers | -150 (at 4cx) | -3.0 (-104 at ProphetX) | O 58.5 |
| Ole Miss Rebels | +147 (at NoVig) | +3.0 (+100 AT 4cx) | U 58.5 |
Odds as of September 16 at 12:30 PM ET
LSU vs Ole Miss Analysis
Everything about this game pointd to Lane Kiffin, who spent six seasons building Ole Miss into a program that beat LSU last September, 24-19. But now, he walks in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium wearing purple and gold.
The Tigers have looked the part through two weeks. LSU smothered Clemson, 51-10, in Kiffin’s debut, piling up 644 yards of total offense, then handled Lousiana Tech, 45-14. That’s 96 points in two games and a defense that has been stellar, highlighted by Princewill Umanmielen’s five sacks. The market has noticed the performance with Ole Miss opening as the favorite and has now shifted to LSU laying three points.
But there’s a crack here and it showed up both weeks. QB Sam Leavitt threw an interception against Clemson and three more against Louisiana Tech, including a pick-six in a game where LSU trailed at halftime before waking up. The Arizona State transfer has been solid on the ground, recording 135 rushing yards and two scores against Clemson and three more rushing touchdowns against Tech. But he has thrown exactly one touchdown pass in each of his first two starts while handing the ball to the other team four times.
Ole Miss hasn't been the cleanest either. The Rebels needed a 48-yard field goal as time expired to get past No. 24 Louisville 41-38 in a genuine nail biter, then tidied things up with a 41-9 win over Charlotte. Trinidad Chambliss threw for 336 yards and two scores in the opener and came back and completed 23 of 26 passes against Charlotte. Kewan Lacy has scored on the ground in 11 straight games, the longest such streak by an Ole Miss player since at least 1956.
I expect LSU to win. I just don't think the Tigers are four points better than Ole Miss in Oxford against the quarterback who beat them here last year, and at +147 the Rebels are priced as a longer shot than they actually are with the fair number on the Rebels at +142, so NoVig's +147 is a 2.1% edge.
LSU vs Ole Miss +EV Opportunities This Week
Sam Leavitt UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns is the headline at 10.1%, and the market is all over the place on it. Hard Rock has it at +125, which grades at 10.1%. Fliff is +115. But FanDuel is -118 and Bovada is -120, and at those prices the same bet loses about 10%. Leavitt has thrown one touchdown pass in each of his first two games and scored five times on the ground versus twice through the air. LSU scores plenty. The touchdowns just aren't coming from his arm.