Ohio State vs Iowa Odds, Picks & +EV Week 5: Lay It At Plus Money
Ohio State is a 14.5-point favorite against Iowa with the total sitting at 45.5. The best thing on this board is that you can lay the points at plus money, NoVig has Ohio State -14.5 at +102 while the rest of the market sits at -108. If you want the upset instead, NoVig also has Iowa at +545 against a +466 market average.
Ohio State vs Iowa Odds Week 5
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State Buckeyes | -567 (at NoVig) | +14.5 (-106 at NoVig) | O 45.5 |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | +545 (at NoVig) | -14.5 (+102 at NoVig) | U 45.5 |
Odds as of October 1 at 11:00 AM ET
Ohio State vs Iowa Analysis
The No. 5 Buckeyes score 45 points a game. The No. 14 Hawkeyes allow eight. One of those numbers is about to look very wrong.
Iowa is 4-0 and owns the best scoring defense in the country at 8.0 points per game, with two shutouts and just 152 passing yards allowed a night. The Hawkeyes showed out last week at the Big House, beating Michigan 20-19 on a walk-off Hank Brown touchdown pass to Reece Vander Zee that knocked the Wolverines out of the AP poll entirely.
Ohio State's only blemish is a 24-23 loss at Texas, and the Buckeyes have been overwhelming people since. They're averaging 45.0 points a game, the defense is 13th nationally at 12.3 allowed, and Jeremiah Smith just put up 12 catches for 217 yards and four touchdowns against Illinois. Julian Sayin has had no trouble finding him in the red zone.
Ohio State vs Iowa +EV Opportunities This Week
Tony Diaz OVER 5.5 receptions is the one flagged prop, +148 at BetRivers for a 4.9% edge, and the market has no idea what to do with him. ProphetX is +147, PrizePicks +136, Caesars +125, FanDuel +120, Dabble +110, DraftKings +106, and Fliff is all the way down at +100. Fair value is about +136, which means the two books at +148 are the entire edge and everything from Caesars down is a losing ticket.
Be honest about what this bet is, though. Diaz has 20 catches for 247 yards in four games, which is five a game against a line of 5.5, and he's cleared the number twice with seven against Northern Illinois and eight against Iowa State. The two misses are the ones that should give you pause: two catches in a 55-0 blowout of Northern Iowa where nobody needed him, and three at Michigan, the best defense he has faced all year.
Our model gives the OVER a 42.3% chance, so it isn't saying this will happen. It's saying +148 pays too much for a 42% shot. The game script is another lay with Iowa trailing a 45-point offense means throwing, and throwing means targets for the guy who leads the team in catches.