Packers vs Falcons Odds, Picks & +EV For Week 3: Packers set to tear up Lambeau
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers take on Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 3. The Packers are -5.5 point favorites at +104 odds at NoVig heading into Packers vs Falcons, with the total set at 43.5 points.
Find all of the best lines for TNF and all of the NFL’s Week 3 schedule on our odds screen.
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Packers vs Falcons Odds Week 3
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | -233 (NoVig) | -5.5 (+104 NoVig) | O43.5 (+112 4cx) |
| Atlanta Falcons | +231 (4cx) | +5.5 (-106 NoVig) | U43.5 (-112 FanDuel) |
Odds as of September 23rd
Packers vs Falcons Analysis
Neither of these teams has looked particularly convincing through the opening two weeks, but at least Green Bay arrives at their home owner with a win under their belts.
The Packers needed overtime to escape New York like Kurt Russell with a 20-17 win over the Jets on Sunday. It was an ugly victory as the Packers managed only 199 yards and went 1-for-9 on third odwns in the rain. But, Jordan Love threw two touchdowns without a pick and led the offense back from a 17-7 fourth quarter deficit.
Love threw for 387 yards against Minnesota, and then finished with 145 against New York. Now you can find his passing yardage total at 229.5 yards and -110 odds over at DraftKings for Thursday night football. The Falcons defense gives Love a nice opportunity to get back on track.
Atlanta placed top cover corner AJ Terrell on injured reserve after he suffered a groin injury against Carolina. The Falcons gave up three passing touchdowns against the Panthers in his absence.
Additionally, Michael Penix Jr. is set to make his season debut for the Faclons after his suffering the third torn ACL of his career last November. Penix showed flashes last season, tossing for 1,982 yards nine touchdowns and three interceptions across nine games. Still, the Falcons will lean on their trio of weapons in Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts to take the pressure of their quarterbacl. Robinson especially will feature prominently against a Packers defense that held the Jets’ Breece Hall to just 29 yards on 16 carrries last week. You can fade Robinson’s 77.5 yardage total for Thursday Night Football, with the UNDER available at -106 odds over at NoVig.
The Packers -5.5 points spread looks rich for a Green Bay team that has failed to launch thus far, but this is a matchup Matt Lafleur’s team will control at home. Atlanta has scored only 16 points through eight quarters, and the Falcons are asking a quarterback coming off his third torn ACL to rescue the offense on a short week. That’s a lot to overcome at Lambeau, back the Pack.
Packers vs Falcons +EV Opportunities Week 3
While it’s not a huge +EV opportunity, I’m backing Kaleb Johnson to continue his hot start in the Packers backfield. Johnson’s OVER 49.5 rushing yards gives us a +0.7% play at +216 odds over at DraftKings.The Steelers reject rushed for 32 yards on just eight carries against the Jets, and will figure more prominently after being far and away the Packers most effective back thus far.
USC product Marshawn Lloyd has looked less than impressive over the first two weeks of the season. He carried the ball six times for 20 yards in New York, and didn’t come in the game after losing a fumble early in the 4th quarter. Lloyd played just 27% of snaps in Week 2, opening up plenty of opportunity for Johnson to slot in and cash this bet.
There’s also a favorably game script angle here with the Packers entering the matchup as 5.5-pont home favorites. Should Green Bay build a lead against a Falcons offense that has struggled to score, Lafleur will have every reason to keep the football on the ground. Getting a 2 to 1 plus money price on a back who will likely see his workload increase in Packers vs Falcons is the cherry on top.