New England vs Seattle Odds, Picks & +EV Data: Sharp Money On Patriots
A rematch of the Super Bowl is how we kickoff the 2026-27 NFL season with the Patriots, as 3.5-point underdogs (-114 at Prophet), travelling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks (-3.5, +109 at 4cx) looking for revenge after the 29-13 Super Bowl 60 beatdown. The total for the NFL season opener is 44.5 points with the best OVER odds coming from NoVig at +102 and the UNDER best odds also at NoVig at -106.
Check out our odds screen for the latest NFL odds.
The Prop ProfessorPatriots vs Seahawks Odds Week 1
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England | +163 (NoVig) | +3.5 (-113 NoVig) | O44.5 (+102 NoVig) |
| Seattle | -169 (4cx) | -3.5 (+111 NoVig) | U44.5 (-106 NoVig) |
Patriots vs Seahawks Analysis
Mike Macdonald’s Seattle defense was the story of the Super Bowl, holding New England to 0 points through the first three quarters and limited running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson to a combined 42 yards on 13 carries in the game. Interestingly, Stevenson’s rushing total for this Week 1 matchup is set at 55.5 yards and NoVig has your best UNDER odds at +100.
It’ll be a bit of a new look for the Patriots, notably in the passing game by trading for Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Brown from the Eagles while also signing Romeo Doubs from Green Bay. Brown’s +189 odds to score a touchdown at Kalshi is nice value compared to the average +152 odds across the board.
Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the ball for the Seahawks, they will still feature reigning AP Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba as their number one receiver, JSN racked up nearly 1,800 yards on 119 receptions and had 10 touchdowns. Books are a little tighter with his anytime touchdown line compared to Brown with NoVig offering +147 odds, while many other books hold +130 odds.
It’ll be a different backfield for Seattle turning the ball over to rookie Jadarian Price out of Notre Dame after the Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker signed a deal with Kansas City.
This game should be a lot more competitive than Super Bowl 60 with the improved wide receiver group for the Patriots which should allow them to stretch the field and open up more running opportunities for Stevenson, Henderson and quarterback Drake Maye.
Our Smart Money tool has significant interest in not only New England to win, but to cover alternate spreads as you’ll see below.
Patriots vs Seahawks +EV Opportunities Week 1
Looking at the highest +EV play on the board at the time of this writing in conjunction with the Smart Money biggest play and you can see where the two could potentially go hand in hand. There is significant liquidity at Pinnacle on the Seahawks +3.5 at -309 indicating upwards of $10,000 on the Patriots alternate line of -3.5.
This bodes well for the top +EV play of Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 15.5 rushing attempts at Sportszino. If the Patriots are leading by more than a field goal, you would expect coach Mike Vrabel to run the ball consistently potentially leading to a Stevenson OVER 15.5 carries.
Personally, if you can find some +EV on Drake Maye OVER 232.5 passing yards that would be my favorite play. The MVP runner-up last year did throw for 295 yards in the Super Bowl with his number one target being Mack Hollins. With improved weapons in A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, along with some departing members of the Seahawks’ secondary, I think the 230 passing yard total is low and as the game approaches I’ll be searching for the best opportunity to lock in the OVER.