Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco Odds, Picks & +EV Data: Value on the OVER
A titanic Thursday night showdown down under kicks off in Week 1 as the Los Angeles Rams battle the San Francisco 49ers in Australia. The Super Bowl favorite Rams enter this one as 4-point favorites (+100 at 4cx), with the total set at 48 points. The best odds on the OVER are -106 at Prophet, while UNDER bettors can find the best odds at 4cx -102.
Be sure to keep a close on our odds screen for the latest NFL odds.
The Prop ProfessorRams vs 49ers Odds Week 1
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | -185 (NoVig) | -4 (+100 4cx) | O48 (-106 Prophet) |
| San Francisco 49ers | +185 (Circa) | +4 (-108 Prophet) | U48 (-102 4cx) |
Odds as of September 9th at 12pm ET
Rams vs 49ers Analysis
The first ever NFL regular season game in Australia features two contenders who are also NFC West rivals in the Rams and 49ers. These teams split the season series last year with the 49ers pulling off a 26-23 overtime upset in LA, and the Rams answering with a 42-26 win in San Francisco.
That leaves us with a total of 117 points across two games, as both offenses moved the ball with ease, even with Mac Jones leading the 49ers. Jones threw for over 300 yards in each matchup, and now San Francisco gets starter Brock Purdy back from injury. Which makes Brock Purdy over 22.5 completions at +115 odds at the ScoreBet even more appealing (more on that prop below).
Of course, Purdy will have to deal with a completely different Rams defense. Los Angeles traded for reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, and added All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie before legendary Ram Aaron Donald decided to come out of retirement. Donald won’t play on Thursday, but this Rams defensive line is scary all the same.
On the flip side, this is a nightmare matchup for the 49ers defense. Reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford shredded the 49ers twice last season, tossing for 389 and three touchdowns in the first meeting before adding 280 yards and four scores in the rematch. That makes his OVER 263.5 yards prop an interesting play at -113 odds over at NoVig.
Remember, San Francisco finished 30th in pressure rate and dead last with only 20 sacks last season. Nick Bosa’s return should help, but the 49ers will be without promising young tackle Alfred Collins for the season after he tore his patellar tendon in Australia.
That’s a tough spot to enter a game against an offense led by the playcalling genius of Sean McVay and the likes of Stafford and receivers’ Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
I lean toward the Rams at -4, but I like the OVER 48 points more. Both teams are more than capable of scoring touchdowns, and the 49ers light front will have trouble getting off the field.
Keep an eye on our Smart Money tool leading up to kickoff to see where the largest wagers are landing as the Rams vs 49ers market continues to move.
Rams vs 49ers +EV Opportunities Week 1
The first bet that stands out to me is obviously the OVER 48 points, still priced at -106 at Prophet. Most sportsbooks have moved the total to 48.5 points, and that could continue to rise as more recreational bettors place their wagers. Finding the 48 point total at a reasonable price is valuable.
My favorite +EV player prop is Brock Purdy OVER 22.5 passing completions at +115 at theScoreBet. We’ve discussed how the stacked Rams offense will likely continue to run roughshod against an overmatched 49ers defense. On the other side of that coin, the 49ers will be forced to throw to stay in the game.
Purdy completed over 70% of his passes after returning from injury in Week 11 last season. At that rate, he’ll need just 33 attempts to clear this total. In his two starts against the Rams last year, backup Mac Jones completed exactly 33 passes in each contest. Los Angeles’ upgraded defensive line will force pressure, and make Purdy throw to his release valve, Christian McCaffrey. These shorter passes hold a far higher probability of completion, and CMC only boosts our Purdy OVER 22.5 completions play.
With San Francisco likely to be forced into a pass heavy game script, Purdy should hit 35 attempts with ease. We don’t need him to throw for 300 yards or create a collection of explosive plays for this to hit, we simply need him to continue his baseline as one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks.
The +EV on each play will change as sportsbooks adjust their prices, so use our Positive EV tool to find the best available opportunity before placing a bet.