Getting Started With The Fantasy Optimizer

Users who are not yet familiar with the concept of positive expected value should first read our article on the topic, which can be found here.

Fantasy, or Pick’Em apps such as PrizePicks and Underdog operate in a slightly different way than traditional sportsbooks, although they can still be beat in a similar manner. Instead of displaying the odds for each market based upon some algorithm, the user selects props to include in a parlay, with payouts differing according to the number of legs. Using the number of legs and payout, we can calculate the implied odds-per-leg. For example, a 2-man power lineup with a payout of 3x (+200) has an implied ods-per-leg of -136.

The odds-per-leg for each slip type on each fantasy app can be found in the dropdown next to the "Compact View" button. For example, on PrizePicks, a 5-man flex lineup has an odds-per-leg of -119, or 54.3% in terms of percent odds, but a PrizePicks 2-man power has an odds-per-leg of -136 (57.6%). This means that, in order to be profitable when betting 5-man flexes on PrizePicks, your predictions must be correct an average of at least 54.3% of the time.

Using this understanding of implied odds, it is possible to achieve +EV on fantasy apps. Simply put, if the true likelihood of each leg of a parlay hitting is greater than the implied odds, then +EV has been achieved, Specific to PrizePicks, if the true odds of each leg in a 5-man flex is 55% then the bet is +EV given the implied odds of 54.3%.

Our Fantasy Optimizer leverages this understanding of implied odds to find the highest probability bets on each fantasy app from sportsbook odds. In the above example, FanDuel, which tends to be the sharpest book for NBA player props has the odds at -158/+118 which equates to a no vig odds of -136 (57.7%). Since the breakeven for PrizePicks 5-man flexes is 54.3%, betting this prop is +EV.

In some cases, such as the above market, a direct line comparison does not exist. In the above case, PrizePicks has a line of 14, while FanDuel, DraftKings and Caesars only have 12.5 as listed lines (we display the closest sportsbook comparison line to the fantasy line). In these cases, our algorithm estimates the value of the difference between lines in order to calculate the true odds of an outcome. So, although the no-vig odds of FanDuel and Draftkings are about even in this case, the displayed value is 60.7%, as our algorithm has determined the value of the gap to be roughly 10.7%.

Anything colored in green on the optimizer page is +EV, as determined by our algorithm for that slip type. If you wish to see the profitability for a different slip type, simply select that slip type from the dropdown. The colors will be automatically updated.

Comparison Books: Only these books will be shown as comparison books in the table. One of these books must have 2-way odds for a market to be displayed.

Hide Push: Hides wagers with an integer line. Valuable as a leg pushing on a fantasy app will lead the payout to revert to the payout based upon the number of remaining legs, which is much lower in many cases.

Hide Line Discrepancies: Hide wagers where no sportsbook comparisons share the same line (if a book is hidden, it is not considered).

Hide Sub Odds: Hides the odds of the other side of a line.

Note that all advanced settings can be set for all fantasy apps, or for just a single fantasy app, using the dropdown at the top of the page.

Our site allows you to hide wagers with insufficient sportsbook comparison using weights. Setting a minimum/maximum weight, along with adding book weights ensures that the sum of the present comparison weights must fall within the inputted range. For example, setting the minimum weight to 3, and the weight for DraftKings/FanDuel/Caesars to 1 will ensure that 2 out of the 3 of the aforementioned books have comparison odds in order for a market to display. These can be league and market by specific. Checking a comparison book as required ensures that it has comparison odds for a market to display. Checking a comparison book has hard required means that book must both have comparison odds, and the same line as the fantasy app. For example, if FanDuel has hard required checked and a PrizePicks line is 27.5, FanDuel must both have comparison odds for that market and a line of 27.5.