What Is Closing Line Value (CLV) & Why Does It Matter?

Determining whether the betting pick that you’ve made was good or not can be an agonizing process as there are many different data points that you can use to evaluate. One of those data points is looking at the Closing Line Value or CLV and how it relates to the odds or line that you originally placed your bet at. A strong closing line value is a good indicator that you’re making smart bets and in the long term could result in being a profitable sports bettor.

What Is Closing Line Value in Sports Betting?

In a nutshell closing line value is the difference in the odds or line from when you made the bet to when the line closed at the beginning of a game or event. A closing line value can be positive or negative, depending on the line movement. Consistently generating positive closing line value can be a strong indicator that your betting process is finding favorable prices.

How to Calculate Closing Line Value

To calculate the closing line value of a given bet you are going to want to understand and apply implied win probabilities. For example, a +100 bet has an implied win probability of 50.0% and a -200 bet has an implied win probability of 66.67% and +200 odds have a 33.33% implied win probability.

At a surface level, you can know that you have positive closing line value by looking at the odds you placed and where the odds eventually moved. If you bet on the Dallas Cowboys to win at -200 on Friday and come Sunday night their odds have moved to -250, you clearly captured positive closing line value. Similarly, in that same game you bet CeeDee Lamb to go over 74.5 receiving yards, and just before kickoff that prop line is now 79.5 receiving yards you have positive closing line value assuming the odds remain the same.

The inverse can also happen and that’s not ideal. If we use the above example but were betting on Philadelphia and we placed a bet for it to win at +135 on Friday and then on Sunday its odds are +170, we have lost value on the bet we placed.

It’s important to note that with a positive closing line value your bet may still lose and negative closing line value your bet may still win. The value is just suggesting whether you captured a valuable price at the time or not which may be an indication that your process can lead to profitability over the long run.

If you want to know the closing line value percentage of your bet, calculate the difference between the closing implied probability and your original implied probability, divide that difference by the original implied probability and multiply by 100. In the example above, your -200 Cowboys bet had an implied win probability of 66.67%, while the -250 closing odds represent an implied win probability of 71.43%. The calculation is (71.43 - 66.67) / 66.67 x 100 = 7.14%, giving you approximately +7.14% CLV.

If you don’t want to manually do the math, we have a closing line value calculator in which you just input the odds you placed the bet at, what the closing line was and press enter to get your closing line value.

Why Beating The Closing Line Matters

Beating the closing line is a core aspect of positive EV betting in general. While the two aren’t the same, there are a lot of similarities. If you’re consistently earning a positive closing line value, you’re getting odds that end up being better than what the sportsbook offers at closing time. This means that in the long run, the value you’re getting, or the better expected return you’re getting, is larger than what the final odds or implied win probability represents.

This matters so you can evaluate your process in making a bet. If you’re using Prop Professor tools and you’re consistently having a negative closing line value, you might have to readjust your settings and perhaps a sportsbook you considered sharp might actually be soft and which could weaken the signal you’re using to identify +EV bets.

Conversely, if you’re regularly having a positive closing line value, you may have your system or process in a good place and hopefully you’re seeing a return on your investment. Many serious bettors use closing line value as one of the most important measurements of whether their betting process is consistently finding good prices.

How CLV Relates to Positive EV Betting

The connection between CLV and +EV betting can be a difficult one to differentiate. For positive EV betting, you’re looking to find the currently available odds that are the best in the market and provide the highest potential return on your investment as possible. You can learn more about positive EV betting with our guide here.

Meanwhile, CLV is after the market closes, did that bet provide even more value than when you placed that bet. Essentially, +EV evaluates the price available when you place the wager, while CLV evaluates how that price compares with where the market eventually closes. Positive CLV can therefore provide useful evidence that your original +EV process identified a strong price, even if the individual wager ultimately loses.

If you can find strong +EV bets and they consistently beat the closing line, there’s a strong chance you’re going to find better returns on your investment.

Does Positive CLV Mean Your Bet Will Win?

As mentioned above, having a positive CLV does not mean that you have a winning bet on your hands, nor does negative CLV suggest your bet will lose. This is where odds and implied win probabilities can be explored further. If you have positive CLV on a bet placed at +500, the original implied win probability is still just 16.67%. Even if that line closes at +400, the closing price carries an implied probability of only 20.0%.

Conversely, if you bet Dallas at -250, which carries a 71.43% raw implied probability, and the market closes at -200, the closing price still carries a 66.67% raw implied probability even though you experienced negative CLV.

CLV measures the quality of the price you captured, not whether the individual bet won or lost.