Heisman Trophy +EV Opportunities Week 8: Mensah Closing The Gap
A week ago, Miami QB, Darian Mensah, had odds of +1000 and had a +59.7% EV opportunity. Well, I hope you grabbed that value as a week later his odds are around +340 which would be a 150% CLV. Meanwhile, Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith’s odds lengthened from -200 to -110 but remains the favorite.
Our +EV Futures Board puts every Heisman price from the major books and fantasy apps on one screen so you can see who's paying the most before the market tightens up with the fair prices already calculated for you.
CFB Heisman Odds & +EV
Heisman Winner odds
| Heisman Winner |  DraftKings |  FanDuel |  BetMGM |  Caesars |  Fanatics |  Hardrock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | +122 | +120 | +110 | +120 | +100 | +125 |
| Malachi Toney | +350 | +370 | +350 | +330 | +350 | +350 |
| Darian Mensah | +290 | +290 | +300 | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| Austin Mack | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Will Hammond | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jayden Maiava | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 |
| Keelon Russell | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 |
| Marcel Reed | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 |
| Cj Carr | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 |
| Lanorris Sellers | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 |
| Jesse Legree | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 |
| Drew Mestemaker | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 |
| Sam Leavitt | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 |
| + 46 more | ||||||
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Get StartedThe bye week may be much needed for Smith, who’s on the heels of back-to-back sub-100-yard performances after a four catch 68 day against No. 5 Indiana in Week 7. The junior receiver did extend his touchdown streak to four games though and led the Buckeyes’ receiving game.
With two more ranked games on the schedule and, of course, The Game to close out the season, Smith will need another couple of those early-season performances if he is to win the Heisman. If you think it’s still his to lose, Circa Sportsbook has his odds at +130 which is the best on the board and is +8.0% EV to our fair value of +113.
Best +EV Heisman Opportunities
Last week i highlighted Darian Mensah’s +59.7% EV opportunity when our fair value had him at +714 and Circa Sportsbook had his odds at +1200. Looking at the liquidity in the market and there’s 4.3k at PolymarketUS on Mensah at +403 and 4.9k on Kalshi at +404 odds. Bovada’s line for Mensah is +425 which is a great play with a month left in the season.
Miami climbed to No. 1 in the nation with its 43-35 double overtime win over Florida State in Week 7. Mensah tossed his first interception of the season in that game, but had his fourth game in which he tossed three or more touchdowns and racked up 326 yards.
The Notre Dame showdown on November 7 lost a little bit of its luster after the Irish were downed 28-24 to No. 8 BYU last week. That said, Mensah is still going to need to ball out in South Bend to have a chance at winning the Heisman.