Heisman Trophy +EV Opportunities Week 2: Even The Favorite Is A +70% EV Play
One week into the college football and Darian Mensah is the new favorite with fair odds of +457, and Circa is offering him at the best price of +850, a +70.6% EV against our fair line.
Our +EV Futures Board puts every Heisman price from the major books and fantasy apps on one screen so you can see who's paying the most before the market tightens up with the fair prices already calculated for you.
The Prop ProfessorCFB Heisman Odds & +EV
Heisman Winner odds
| Heisman Winner |  DraftKings |  FanDuel |  BetMGM |  Fanatics |  Hardrock |  Bovada |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darian Mensah | +600 | +600 | +650 | +550 | +600 | +475 |
| Arch Manning | +950 | +1000 | +1100 | +950 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Ahmad Hardy | +20000 | +22500 | +10000 | +12000 | +7500 | +20000 |
| Sam Leavitt | +1500 | +1500 | +1700 | +1400 | +1500 | +1500 |
| Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele | +7800 | +7000 | +10000 | +10000 | +7500 | +7000 |
| Drew Mestemaker | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 |
| Bo Jackson | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 |
| Julian Sayin | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 |
| Brendan Sorsby | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 |
| Cj Carr | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 |
| Jeremiah Smith | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 |
| Dante Moore | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 |
| Malachi Toney | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 |
| + 132 more | ||||||
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Get StartedMensah earned the leap to the top of the board. The Duke transfer went 27-for-30 for 401 yards and five touchdowns in the Miami Hurricanes’ 45-6 win over Stanford. The junior became the sixth quarterback since 2000 to eclipse 400 yards while completing at least 90% of his passes.
The books reacted, but not necessarily evenly. DraftKings has him at +600, and FanDuel, BetOnline, Bally and BetMGM are all clustered at +650. Circa is sitting way out at +850. Against our fair line of +457, that one outlier is a +70.1% EV opportunity.
Best +EV Heisman Opportunities
Jeremiah Smith is a name that’s standing out. Ohio State’s receiver finished with 151 yards and two touchdowns in the 56-3 victory over Ball State, complete with a Heisman pose in the end zone. Our fair line has him at +617, and most books have him between +1000 and +1200, but Bally is up at +1300, which works out to a +95.3% EV play.
Dante Moore is an interesting one. Oregon looked sloppy beating Boise State 34-27, but Moore personally was excellent, going 28-of-37 for 387 yards, three touchdowns, and no turnovers. The team's mess dragged his price out, and BetMGM's +1500 against our fair line of +991 is a 46.7% opportunity.
CJ Carr is the value nobody's talking about because he was the preseason favorite and had a fine debut, finishing 19-of-29, 239 yards, two touchdowns against Wisconsin. But that was slightly overshadowed by the performances of the names above. He's dropped to +975 fair, and FanDuel's +1300 is a +30.2% EV play. Bally has him at +675. That's a 625-point difference on the same quarterback. Pay close attention in Week 9 when Carr hosts Mensah’s Canes in what could be a matchup that swings Heisman votes.
Sam Leavitt +207.7% EV: The Best Number On The Board
The biggest edge on the Heisman board belongs to the same team that owns the biggest edge on the national championship board.
Sam Leavitt threw for 230 yards, ran for another 113, and accounted for three total touchdowns in Lane Kiffin's 51-10 demolition of Clemson. Our fair odds on the Arizona State transfer sit at +615, a 14.0% chance to take home the trophy in December.
The sportsbooks are nowhere close. Circa has him at +1200, BetOnline, DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM are all clustered in the +1400 to +1700 range, while Bally has the heaviest odds at +2100. That's a +207.7% EV opportunity, and even the shortest retail price on the board is still comfortably +EV.
Dual-threat quarterbacks on undefeated SEC teams win this award, and Leavitt just posted 343 total yards in his first game in purple and gold. LSU's schedule is a monster, though, with road trips to No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 20 Tennessee, plus No. 8 Texas A&M, No. 13 Alabama, and No. 5 Texas. But a Heisman campaign needs a competitive edge, and nobody in the country gets five prime-time showcases against ranked opponents the way this kid does.