Heisman Trophy +EV Opportunities Week 6: Baugh Gone Smith Now Chalked
Jadan Baugh was looking like a great Heisman bet just a week ago after rushing for 600 yards and 11 touchdowns through the first two weeks of the season. The Florida running back was limited to 13 yards on 12 carries this past weekend, plummeting his odds from +1200 to +6500.
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the favorite with odds in around -110 to +100 but Circa still has him at +130 offering a +EV opportunity of 13.3%.
Our +EV Futures Board puts every Heisman price from the major books and fantasy apps on one screen so you can see who's paying the most before the market tightens up with the fair prices already calculated for you.
CFB Heisman Odds & +EV
Heisman Winner odds
| Heisman Winner |  DraftKings |  FanDuel |  BetMGM |  Caesars |  Fanatics |  Hardrock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | +100 | -110 | -120 | -110 | -115 | +110 |
| Keelon Russell | +800 | +700 | +900 | +650 | +800 | +800 |
| Darian Mensah | +500 | +700 | +500 | +500 | +550 | +500 |
| Cj Carr | +800 | +750 | +900 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | +1600 | +1500 | +1700 | +1500 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Gunner Stockton | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 |
| Josh Hoover | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 |
| Drew Mestemaker | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 |
| Arch Manning | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 |
| Kamario Taylor | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 |
| Jadan Baugh | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 |
| Julian Sayin | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 |
| Malachi Toney | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 |
| + 60 more | ||||||
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Get StartedIn Week 5, Smith had his second straight double-digit reception, 200+ yard and multi-touchdown game. Last week he had 12 catches for 217 yards and four TDs and against Iowa on Saturday he has 11 catches for 206 yards and two more touchdowns.
Circa sportsbook offers his line at +130 while most sportsbooks have him in minus-money territory with FanDuel and Caesars at -110, Polymarket has a price of -107 with $450 of liquidity, BetMGM has the shortest odds at -120 so getting a plus-money line of +130 is a great EV play heading into Week 6.
Best +EV Heisman Opportunities
Miami QB Darian Mensah is second on the oddsboard and once again Circa is mispriced in comparison to the market. There you can get him with +800 odds while no other book has him priced longer than +700 which is where FanDuel has him. The junior QB has a sparkling 15:0 TD to INT ratio and was completing over 85% of his passes heading into Week 5 when he was just 18-for-27 for 227 yards and one touchdown vs Clemson.
If you believe the trend of quarterbacks winning the heisman will continue, Mensah is a great option but so too is Alabama signal-caller Keelon Russell. He now has three straight games with at least three passing touchdowns and one rushing and an adjusted QBR in the upper 90’s. In his second year, you can see the confidence and skill growing so getting on him early might be the best option. BetMGM has him at +900 which is +30.9 EV compared to our fair value devigged odds.
Trinidad Chambliss’ +79.3% EV Opportunity
It always seems like we have an Ole Miss QB that slings the rock around the field in high-scoring affairs that draws the attention of fans and Heisman bettors alike. Well, this year its Trinidad Chambliss, who ran for 44 yards and two touchdowns to go along with 298 passing yards and another major. Some have him in the conversation to go number one overall in next year’s NFL draft.
There are some warts with Chambliss, with three picks in four games and three games with under 75% completion percentages but he’s put up some impressive numbers overall and against tough competition in then-No. 24 Louisville (a 41-38 victory), then-No. 7 LSU (a 32-24 victory) and last week’s 52-28 defeat to No. 21 Florida.
A lot would have to go right for Ole Miss to open the door for a Chambliss Heisman ceremony appearance, but with four more ranked games on the schedule, I’m saying there’s a chance.