NFL MVP Odds & +EV Opportunities: Allen The Early Favorite
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the early favorite in the NFL MVP odds as the 2026-27 season kicks off with the best odds sitting at +584 at PolyMarket. Allen is followed by Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Caleb Williams. But the real value lies further down the board.
Be sure to keep a close eye on our +EV futures board throughout the season, where you can find the NFL MVP price from all major sportsbooks and fantasy apps.
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NFL MVP Odds & +EV
MVP odds
| MVP |  DraftKings |  FanDuel |  BetMGM |  Fanatics |  Hardrock |  theScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +475 | +400 | +450 | +450 | +450 | +500 |
| Caleb Williams | +700 | +900 | +900 | +750 | +700 | +700 |
| Lamar Jackson | +650 | +600 | +700 | +650 | +650 | +700 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +1500 | +1400 | +1200 | +1400 | +1500 | +1500 |
| Tyler Shough | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Brock Purdy | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 |
| Joe Burrow | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 |
| Jordan Love | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 |
| Bo Nix | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 |
| Jaxson Dart | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 |
| Justin Herbert | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 |
| Dak Prescott | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 |
| + 133 more | ||||||
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Get StartedUntil a superstar at another position proves otherwise, MVP is a quarterback award. Quarterbacks have won 13 straight NFL MVPs, and only three non-quarterbacks have won the award in the last 25 years, all of them running backs. Team success matters almost as much as individual production, with nearly every winner during that stretch playing for a team with at least 11 wins. The lone exception was Adrian Peterson’s herculean season with the 2012 Vikings, who won 10 games.
Which brings us to the favorite, Josh Allen. He won the award just two seasons ago, and now finds himself at the top of the NFL MVP odds board once again. Allen simply has a statistical ceiling few quarterbacks can match, which is why he finds himself near the top of the board year after year.
The Bills quarterback threw for 3,668 yards and 25 touchdowns last season, while adding 531 yards and 12 scores on the ground. That rushing production is what separates Allen from the other favorites. Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert likely need something like 4,500 passing yards and 40 touchdowns to win the award. Allen can get there while throwing for less, because he is always capable of putting up 500+ rushing yards and double digit scores on the ground.
Best +EV NFL MVP Opportunities
One game won’t decide the MVP race, but its certainly moved the odds board in a hurry. Here’s how things stand through Week 1, and where the value lies.
Caleb Williams +61.8% EV
It took about a half for Caleb Williams to emerge from popular breakout pick to legit MVP candidate. Williams threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns while adding 65 yards and two more scores on the ground in the Bears 59-37 demolition of Carolina. Ben Johnson’s offense went crazy for 552 total yards and set an NFL record for most points scored in a season opener.
Remember, the Bears won 11 games last season. Williams won’t have to drag Chicago’s roster into relevance. If Ben Johnson can continue cooking opposing defensive coordinators, the former first overall pick will have the passing effeciency, rushing production and team success to stay near the top of the MVP board.
Williams’ best available price has shorted to +900, but with our fair odds sitting at +518, that leaves a +61.8% EV opportunity. Jump on the Caleb Williams train while you still can.
Trevor Lawrence +89.7% EV
Fantasy managers have been waiting for a Trevor Lawrence breakout for a long time. If Week 1 was indication his +1600 NFL MVP is far too high. Lawrence went 18-of-23 for 245 yards four touchdowns no turnovers in Jacksonville’s 34-10 win over Cleveland.
His 150.6 passer rating was nearly perfect, and the Jaguars scored on their first four possessions before Lawrence was pulled in the fourth quarter. The most encouraging part was how comfortable he looked operating Jacksonville’s offense. Our fair line list Lawrence at +796, giving his +1600 price a +89.7% EV opportunity.
The former Clemson man will still need to prove he can produce against better competition, and the Jaguars will probably need to win at least 11 games. However, the brutal AFC South provides a realistic path to a division title, and four touchdowns to start the year is a strong opening statement.