NFL MVP Odds & +EV Opportunities: Allen The Clear Favorite
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen remains the clear favorite in the NFL MVP odds after three weeks of the NFL season. Allen’s best available odds now sit at +301 at Polymarket, followed by 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy with +550 odds at FanDuel, Lamar Jackson +763, Patrick Mahomes at +1000 and Joe Burrow at +1200.
Be sure to keep a close eye on our +EV futures board throughout the season, where you can find the NFL MVP price from all major sportsbooks and fantasy apps.
NFL MVP Odds & +EV
MVP odds
| MVP |  DraftKings |  BetMGM |  Caesars |  Hardrock |  Circa |  BallyBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player J | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brock Purdy | +300 | +400 | +350 | +350 | +400 | +350 |
| Josh Allen | +280 | +250 | +270 | +250 | +300 | +250 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +650 | +600 | +650 | +650 | +400 | +650 |
| Dak Prescott | +1000 | +1300 | +1000 | +1400 | +980 | +1400 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 |
| Joe Burrow | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 |
| Bryce Young | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 |
| Bijan Robinson | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 |
| Caleb Williams | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 |
| Jalen Hurts | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 |
| Jared Goff | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 |
| + 78 more | ||||||
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Get StartedOdds as of Sept 30 at 8:30 pm ET
Until a superstar at another position proves otherwise, MVP is a quarterback award. Quarterbacks have won 13 straight NFL MVPs, and only three non-quarterbacks have won the award in the last 25 years, all of them running backs. Team success matters almost as much as individual production, with nearly every winner during that stretch playing for a team with at least 11 wins. The lone exception was Adrian Peterson’s herculean season with the 2012 Vikings, who won 10 games.
Which brings us to the huge favorite, Josh Allen. He won the award just two seasons ago, and now finds himself at the top of the NFL MVP odds board once again. Allen simply has a statistical ceiling few quarterbacks can match, which is why he finds himself near the top of the board year after year.
After putting up nine total touchdowns through two games, Allen through two interceptions and finished with just 204 passing yards against the Chargers. He didn’t play particularly well, but still rushed for two scores and the Bills moved to 3-0.
Allen now has 11 total touchdowns through two weeks, and is the engine behind of the of the NFL’s greatest offenses. He’s the deserving favorite, but his price has shorted considerably. Leaving the true value further down the NFL MVP odds board.
Best +EV NFL MVP Opportunities
Three games won’t decide the MVP race, but we’re starting to see the real contenders separate themselves from all the preseason hype. ‘yiop
Brock Purdy +20.6% EV
It’s probably time to reture the old “system quarterback” moniker used against Brock Purdy. He followed his nearly flawless Week 2 performance with a 297 passing yards and four touchdowns against Arizona, leading the 49ers to a 36-30 win. He’s now up to nine passing touchdowns with just one interception, and San Francisco is a perfect 3-0.
Purdy has been the driving force behind the 49ers perfect start, leading the league in EPA while operating one of the league’s most efficient passing attack. MVP votes love touchdowns, efficiency and team success. Purdy now checks every box.
Our fair odds list Purdy at +439, while FanDuel is offering bettors +550. That’s a +20.6% EV opportunity on the quarterback who looks like the biggest threat to Allen.