Super Bowl Odds & +EV: Chiefs Offer +31.8% EV Opportunity
The Super Bowl odds board has a new leader. After just three weeks, the Buffalo Bills have jumped ahead of the Los Angeles Rams after improving to 3-0, with their best available odds sitting at +675 at Circa.
The Rams have slipped to second after blowing a 16-point lead in Denver on Sunday night, while the undefeated San Francisco 49ers have climbed into the top three. Having said that, the biggest betting opportunities remain further down the board, including a familiar contender that may be the NFL’s most complete team.
Be sure to keep a close eye on the Super Bowl 61 prices all season long using our futures board.
Super Bowl 61 Odds & +EV
Super Bowl Winner odds
| Super Bowl Winner |  DraftKings |  FanDuel |  Caesars |  Fanatics |  Hardrock |  BetRivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +650 | +650 | +650 | +650 | +650 | +650 |
| Buffalo Bills | +750 | +750 | +700 | +750 | +700 | +700 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +850 | +950 | +800 | +950 | +850 | +850 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +950 | +900 | +950 | +900 | +1000 | +950 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +900 | +950 | +1000 | +950 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 |
| Carolina Panthers | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 |
| Washington Commanders | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 |
| New Orleans Saints | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 |
| + 19 more | ||||||
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Get StartedBuffalo didn’t exactly light the NFL world aflame in their 24-16 victory over the Chargers. Josh Allen struggled, throwing for just 204 yards and two interceptions without a passing touchdown. The Bills turned the ball over five times, were down multiple scores, and Allen was sacked four times.
For most squads, that a recipe for disaster, but Buffalo still found a way to win by eight points. James Cook was the difference, rushing for 154 yards and a score, while the Bulls defense held the Chargers scoreless over their final eight possessions.
With Buffalo’s best odds sitting at +675, and our fair odds at +634, that gives the Bills a +5.6%EV edge. It’s not the highest value on the board, but Buffalo deserves to be the Super Bowl favorite through three weeks.
Best +EV Super Bowl Opportunities
Don’t look now, but the 49ers quietly climbed to third on the Super Bowl odds board, and while they carry more value than the Bills or Rams, the best combo of price, roster quality and championship pedigree remains with Kansas City.
Kansas City Chiefs +31.8% EV
I’m all over the Chiefs to win Super Bowl 61, and this is your chance to hop on the Kansas City train before the market catches up.
The Chiefs are 3-0, Patrick Mahomes is back to full strength and Kenneth Walker has completely changed the complexion of the offense. Yet, Kansas City remains available at +1200 odds on FanDuel, which offers a +31.8% EV opportunity on our fair odds of +886.
That’s +31% on a team that has won three Super Bowls in the Mahomes era! Kansas City put Miami away by a score of 24-10 in Week 3, with Mahomes completing 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns, and Walker scoring twice himself.
Through three games, the Super Bowl 60 MVP has accumulated 442 yards from scrimmage and five total touchdowns. He’s averaging 25 touches per game and has given Andy Reid the type of dependable back the Chiefs have lacked for years. That makes this year’s version of Kansas City far more difficult to defend. Opposing defenses can’t simply line up in two-high shells and contain the Mahomes deep ball anymore, or Walker will take over on the ground.
At some point, the market is going to correct for that fact, and stop offering Mahomes and Reid at 12 to 1. With our current +31.8% EV edge, I’m willing to make that bet before they do.
Detroit Lions +58.8% EV
Looking slightly further down the board, Detroit offers one of the more intriguing prices among actual contenders. Our futures board gives the Lions fair odds of +1536, while BetOnline is offering +2500, creating a huge +58.8% EV opportunity.
Detroits defense remains a concern, but the offense has scored 31 points in all three games. Jared Goff has thrown eight touchdowns without an interception, and Jayhmyr Gibbs is making an early case for NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
Gibbs racked up over 160 total yards and three touchdowns against the Jets in Week 3, as the Lions improved to 2-1. While Goff added 269 yards and two scores.
The biggest question mark is whether or not the Lions defense can stop anyone. They’ve allowed 95 points through three weeks, and are searching for answers, which is why Detroit is available at +2500 in the first place.
However, safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph figure to return at some point, and Aidan Hutchinson gives the Lions one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL. We don’t need Detroit’s defense to turn into an elite unit overnight. If Branch and Joseph can return from injury and help mold the Lions defense into a league average unit, Goff, Gibbs and the offense will turn them in to a contender.