Super Bowl Odds & +EV: Chiefs Offer +36.6% EV Opportunity
The NFL is back! The smell of fall and football is in the air. That means the Super Bowl is back on the radar, and its time to start looking for value before the season begins to move the market.
The stacked Los Angeles Rams are the favorites, with the best odds coming at FanDuel (+550). That represents a +13.2% EV opportunity compared to our fair odds line of +474. Unlike many preseason Super Bowl favorites, there is still value to be found on the Rams. However, the biggest opportunities lie further down the odds board.
Be sure to keep a close eye on the Super Bowl 61 prices all season long using our futures board.
The Prop ProfessorSuper Bowl 61 Odds & +EV
Super Bowl Winner odds
| Super Bowl Winner |  DraftKings |  FanDuel |  BetMGM |  Fanatics |  Hardrock |  BetRivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +500 | +500 | +500 | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1200 | +1100 | +1200 | +1200 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Buffalo Bills | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 | +900 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1000 | +1300 | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1600 | +1600 | +1500 | +1500 | +1500 | +1500 |
| Denver Broncos | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 |
| New England Patriots | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 |
| Detroit Lions | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 |
| Houston Texans | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 |
| + 19 more | ||||||
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Get StartedThe Rams were already one of the NFL’s best teams, and a Super Bowl contender, before putting together what felt like a Madden off-season.
LA finished last season 12-5 and came within a few plays of reaching the big game. Reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford returns, with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams giving him two elite pass-catchers.
But, it’s the defensive additions that have made this team look ridiculous. Los Angeles traded for all-world pass-rusher Myles Garrett and signed All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie before legendary Ram Aaron Donald decided to come out of retirement. If everyone stays healthy, good luck blocking that front four.
The Rams also have the added motivation of aiming to play in the Super Bowl in their home stadium. Super Bowl 61 will held at SoFi Stadium, where the Rams won their most recent championship back in 2022.
At +550 the Rams aren’t exactly a bargain. But, the price is still considerably better than our fair line of +474, creating a 13.2% +EV opportunity.
Best +EV Super Bowl Opportunities
Looking slightly further down the board, we find one of the best values available on last year’s Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.
With fair odds of +1060, BetOnline has Seattle listed at +1400, creating a +29.3% +EV opportunity. It’s incredible to see the team that just won last year’s Super Bowl available at 14-to-1, but here we are.
Seattle went 14-3 to earn the No.1 seed in the NFC, and dominated New England 29-13 in Super Bowl 60 in February. Head coach Mike McDonald moulded a defense that finished first in scoring and defensive DVOA. According to FTN, last season’s Seahawks represent the eighth best defensive DVOA performance since 1978.
Having said that, there are legitimate reasons for the hefty discount. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is now in Las Vegas, and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker signed with Kansas City. Seattle will attempt to repeat with first time playcaller and former 49ers assistant Brian Fleury running the offense.
Even still, its important to remember Seattle were the dominant force in football last season, and the nucleus of the squad remains intact. Most sportsbooks have Seattle priced at closer to +1200, making the +1400 at BetOnline stand out. Jump on that number while you still can, as that price will disappear quickly if the Seahawks start the season looking anything like the team that ended last year.
Kansas City Chiefs +36.6% EV
The squad I keep coming back to is the Kansas City Chiefs.
I know, backing Patrick Mahomes isn’t exactly reaching into the bargain bin. However, this is the first time in years bettors can get anywhere near 18-to-1 on Mahomes and Andy Reid.
Our futures board gives Kansas City fair odds of +1285, while Polymarket is offering +1792. That creates a massive +36.6% EV opportunity, which is the largest among the top five teams on the Super Bowl odds board.
Of course, the Chiefs are priced this way for a reason. Kansas City finished a disastrous 6-11 last season, and failed to make the playoffs for the first time in the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era. Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in December, and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense lost starters Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook. This is far from the same roster that reached five Super Bowls in six seasons.
However, Mahomes looks set to start in Week 1, and Kansas City added the aforementioned Super Bowl MVP in Kenneth Walker to give the running game some much needed juice.
Plus, at the price of +1792, the Chiefs don’t immediately need to look like their dynastic selves for this wager to carry value. Reid and company simply need to keep Mahomes healthy, reach the playoffs, and give themselves another chance to win the playoff tournament they’ve already won three times. The AFC won’t be an easy hill to climb, with Buffalo, Baltimore and Denver all looking like legitimate contenders.
Having said that, getting the greatest quarterback of his generation at a price of nearly 18-to-1 isn’t an opportunity we’ll see very often. With a +36.6% edge over our price, the Chiefs are difficult to ignore as a preseason Super Bowl pick.