Stanley Cup Odds & +EV Opportunities: Where The Value Is A Month In

A month into the NHL season and Carolina sits on top of our Stanley Cup board at fair odds of +754 (11.7%). BetOnline’s +800 is the best number available, worth +5.3% EV against our fair line, and it’s the only price in the market above fair value on the Hurricanes.

Our +EV Futures Board puts every Stanley Cup price from the major books and fantasy apps on one screen so you can see who’s paying the most before the market tightens up, with the fair prices already calculated for you.

Stanley Cup Odds & +EV

Odds as of October 29 at 10:30 AM ET

Carolina has been the best team in hockey through a month, sitting 10-2-2 despite injuries to Seth Jarvis, Jordan Staal and Taylor Hall. Pyotr Kochetkov is 8-0-0 in net. DraftKings has them down at +600 and Circa at +650, with most of the rest at +700. BetOnline’s +800 is the only number worth taking, and at +5.3% it’s a thin edge, but still worth noting.

Two names near the top of the board aren’t worth betting right now. Colorado has slipped to 7-5-1 with a penalty kill that gave up four power-play goals in a 6-2 loss to Nashville, and our fair line of +835 sits above every sportsbook price in the market. Circa’s +825 is the closest and it’s still a losing bet. Florida is in worse shape with Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand and Jacob Markstrom all out injured, and at the best number any book will give you the Panthers run close to −10% EV.

Best +EV Stanley Cup Opportunities

Edmonton is the biggest edge among the contenders. Connor McDavid leads the NHL with 36 points in 13 games and Leon Draisaitl sits second, and the Oilers are 9-2-2 even with injuries and an unsettled situation in goal. Our fair line has them at +779, and while most of the market prices Edmonton between +800 and +950, BetOnline is out at +1000. That’s +25.4% EV on arguably the league’s most offensively talented teams.

New Jersey is the one the books haven’t made their mind up about yet. The Devils acquired Connor Hellebuyck from Winnipeg on October 23, which fixed the single clearest weakness on a team already sitting 8-5-0. Our fair line is +1382 and BetOnline’s +1600 is worth +13.9%, with Circa still down at +900 and most of the market between +1200 and +1400. It seems like the market hasn’t settled on what the trade is worth just yet.