Washington vs Philadelphia Odds, Picks & +EV Week 1: Eagles Favored At Home
The Philadelphia Eagles open the 2026 NFL season by hosting the Washington Commanders in an NFC East battle. Philly is a 5.5-point favorite for this game which is 2.5-points more than the last time these two met in Week 18 last year, when Washington earned a 24-17 upset win. This week’s total is set at 44 points.
Head on over to our odds page for the latest Commanders vs Eagles odds.
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Commanders vs Eagles Odds Week 1
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | +227 (4cx) | +5.5 (+100, NoVig) | O44 (-102, ProphetX) |
| Philadelphia | -228 (Kalshi) | -5.5 (-104, NoVig) | U44 (-104, 4cx) |
Odds as of Sept. 11, 2:55 PM ET
Commanders vs Eagles Preview Analysis
That Washington Week 18 victory featured a lot of backup players, notably both starting quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts were not suited up. Daniels had missed the majority of the season with an elbow injury and Hurts, while banged up, was rested as Philadelphia had clinched the division.
Perhaps the biggest offseason news for the Eagles was trading 3x Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Brown to the Patriots vaulting 2020 Heisman winner, DeVonta Smith, to the WR1 position. Smith has racked up more yards (653, 65.3 per game) against Washington than any other team, and his receiving yards line this week is 66.5 yards with Underdog’s -107 odds on the OVER is the best available at the time of this writing.
It was quite a stark change for Washington year-over-year, earning a playoff spot on the back of Jayden Daniels’ Rookie of the Year season to a dismal 5-12 season last year with Daniels missing 10 games. Our futures page is also indicating that the Commanders’ fair odds to make the playoffs this season is +247 or 28.82 implied probability.
Perhaps these low expectations are warranted given the top two receivers Stefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin are over 30 years old. Add in that the backfield will be a sophomore back in Jacory Croskey-Merritt who averaged just 47.4 rush yards per game – his total is set at 40.5 this week.
This is a divisional game so you can understand why the line is somewhat tight, within a touchdown, but realistically, this Eagles team appears superior on both sides of the ball and should cover the 5.5 points.
Commanders vs Eagles +EV Play Week 1
At the time of this writing, the top Commanders vs Eagles EV play is +4.1% at NoVig for Jacory Croskey-Merritt to go OVER 7.5 receiving yards. Our no-vig fair value odds for this market are +106. The former second-round pick is being projected as the clear number one running back for Washington and is expected to be a three-down back, getting more involved in the passing game.
Croskey-Merritt was efficient in his limited receiving game in 2025, averaging 7.6 yards on nine receptions. He caught one ball for eight yards in the preseason and that would be good enough for this bet to cash on Sunday afternoon.