What Is a Futures Bet? Odds, Vig & Value Explained

Futures betting is simple in practice. With futures you are placing a bet on an outcome that won’t be settled until the end of the season such as who will win the Super Bowl.

Think your favorite team has what it takes to go all the way this season? Place a wager on say the Kansas City Chiefs to lift the Lombardi Trophy at the end of this season. You can also bet the Chiefs to win the AFC West, the AFC Championship winner, and even place a wager on their win totals and much more.

Wagering on a day-of event such as the Chiefs defeating the Raiders in Week 4 may give you a quicker payoff. But, if you’re willing to wait, while rooting on your wager, futures can be much more fruitful.

Since you’re generally betting on an outcome that is months away, sportsbooks will almost always have plus money prices on their futures board.

Whether its the World Series winner, Stanley Cup champion, or Super Bowl champ, bettors have an ever growing list of available futures markets.

What Is a Futures Bet?

A futures bet is a wager placed on an outcome that will be determined in the future, usually at the end of a season, tournament or major competition. Some futures may wrap up within a few weeks, but others remain open for several months.

For example, placing a preseason bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl means your wager will not be settled until Kansas City is eliminated or the Super Bowl is completed. During that time, your money wagered remains tied to the bet.

Sportsbooks offer futures bets for every major sport including the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, college basketball and many more.

How Does Futures Betting Work?

Futures betting works a lot like other sports wagers. You select the market you wish to bet on, choose the outcome, and place your stake. The biggest difference is that you will have to wait, sometimes quite a while, for the result.

If you place Kansas City at +800 and its odds later shorten to +400, your original ticket remains locked in at +800.

That ability to secure a favorable number before the market moves is one of the biggest attractions of futures betting.

How Do Odds for for Futures Bets Appear?

Odds for futures appear much like any other sports wager. However, because the event is set to take place far into the future, and there are many other outcomes you will likely see a chart with each team, or player listed such as Super Bowl Odds.

Those odds will reflect each team’s chances of lifting the Lombardi Trophy this season. Imagine the Chiefs are +800 to win the Super Bowl. A $100 wager at +800 means you profit $800 and a total return of $900 should Kansas City win it all.

The Chiefs could also be -150 to win the division. At that price, you’d need to bet $150 to win $100 if Kansas City wins the AFC West. Futures odds are never locked in and will often fluctuate. Prices will change as sportsbooks adjust for results, injuries, trades, roster changes and how much money has been wagered on each selection.

How Does Vig Work In Futures Betting?

Sportsbooks build a margin or vig into their futures odds. In a perfectly fair market, the implied probabilities of every possible outcome would add up to 100%. On a sportsbooks futures board, the total will normally far exceed 100%, with the difference representing the books advantage.

The vig on futures markets will generally be considerably higher than on say point spreads or totals, especially when dozens of teams or players are listed. As you might expect, popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL, or Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL will carry particularly inflated prices. That makes line shopping essential, as one sportsbook might offer a team at +2400 while another will have them at +3000, creating a meaningful difference in potential profit.

Thankfully, Prop Professor has you covered with our brand new futures board where you can find the best futures prices from 30 sportsbooks.

When Can You Place a Futures Bet?

Futures markets generally appear shortly before the season has ended for any given sport, or right after the championship game has finished. Markets such as Super Bowl odds for the following season usually open around that year’s Super Bowl weekend and remain open throughout the season.

Sportsbooks will continually adjust futures odds throughout the season as new information becomes available. Which is why the best +EV value is often found during the off-season, before the masses have had a chance to place their wagers, and before the sportsbooks have adjusted to in-season conditions.

For example, a team that begins the season +3000 to win it all may see their odds fall to +1000 after an impressive start. Meanwhile, a preseason favorite could drift from +500 to +1200 following injuries or poor performances.

Some markets will close while games are in progress or major trades and other news develops. Once the sportsbook has processed the new information, the futures market will reopen with updated pricing.

Are Futures Bets Worth It?

Futures odds can offer substantial payouts, but longer odds don’t always equal better value.

A +2000 wager may offer a massive potential profit, but there are a multitude of factors that will keep that wager for hitting, which gives futures wagers a high level of risk.

There is also a significant opportunity cost involved. Any preseason stake on a futures wager could be tied up for months, meaning that same money cannot be used on other wagers.

The best futures bets generally combine a strong price with a realistic path to winning. Bettors should look beyond a team’s reputation and consider factors such as schedule, depth, coaching, underlying performance and potential postseason matchups.