National Championship +EV Opportunities Week 2: LSU's Price Got Worse & The Bet Got Better
We’re one week into the college football season, and the national championship board already looks different from what it did on Friday. Notre Dame (+629) and Ohio State (+631) remain co-favorites with nearly identical fair odds, and the best number on the Irish is at FanDuel (+750), for a +16.5% EV against our fair line of +629.
Week 1 is still when futures markets are at their softest as the books react to a single weekend of football. Our +EV Futures Board can help you lock in the best price by comparing all the major books and fantasy apps. Look at the row, know two things instantly: what the bet is actually worth and who is paying the most.
The Prop ProfessorCFB National Championship Odds & +EV
National Championship Winner odds
| National Championship Winner |  DraftKings |  FanDuel |  BetMGM |  Fanatics |  Hardrock |  BetRivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +550 | +550 | +600 | +550 | +550 | +600 |
| Notre Dame | +610 | +750 | +650 | +700 | +600 | +600 |
| Oregon | +950 | +1000 | +1000 | +950 | +900 | +900 |
| LSU | +1100 | +1400 | +1400 | +1200 | +1400 | +1700 |
| Texas | +650 | +850 | +600 | +800 | +650 | +700 |
| Indiana | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 |
| Miami FL | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 |
| Georgia | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 |
| Oklahoma | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 |
| Texas Tech | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 |
| USC | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 | +4000 | +1500 |
| Alabama | +800 | +4000 | +1500 | +3000 | +650 | +5000 |
| UCLA | +3000 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +2500 | +800 |
| + 126 more | ||||||
Sign up free to see every team, fair odds and +EV bets across 30+ books.
Get StartedThe Buckeyes came into the season as the AP Poll’s No. 1 and lived up to the standards, dismantling Ball State in Week 1, 56-3. Jeremiah Smith went off for more than 150 yards, two touchdowns, and a Heisman pose in the end zone. The group piled up nearly 700 total yards while holding its opponents to just 165 on defense.
But, despite all those shiny numbers, OSU is also the worst value on the entire board. Most books have the Buckeyes between +550 and +675, with BetOnline’s +700 the best of the bunch, and which is a +9.4% EV opportunity against our fair line of +631.
Notre Dame is the interesting one this week. Our model has the Irish at +629, again essentially identical to the Buckeyes. Yet DraftKings, Circa and Bally have Notre Dame around +600 to +610, while FanDuel is at +750. That outlier makes Notre Dame a +16.5% EV play, nearly twice Ohio State's.
Best +EV National Championship Opportunities
You don’t have to go far down the board to find value. The Oregon Ducks are offering a +38.9% EV opportunity at BetMGM with +1000 odds compared to our fair line of +692. FanDuel and DraftKings both have the Ducks at +950, BetOnline and Bally at +900, and Circa is all the way down at +750, so BetMGM's +1000 genuinely stands out.
Oregon got that price by playing badly. They beat Boise State 34-27 with 10 penalties and a handful of mistakes no championship contender should be making, like Evan Stewart calling for a fair catch at his own 3-yard line. Their fair odds budged because of it, and their EV nearly doubled from +21.6% last week, because the best available price moved further than our fair line did.
Compare that to the Miami Hurricanes, who played the best game of anybody. Darian Mensah went 27-of-30 for 401 yards and five touchdowns, Malachi Toney set a program record with 234 receiving yards, and the Canes buried Stanford 45-6. Their fair odds shortened (+946 to +889) and their EV collapsed from +24.8% to +6.1%, because the books watched the same blowout you did
LSU Tigers +133.2% EV: The Lane Train Is Underpriced
The team I can't stop looking at is LSU.
Lane Kiffin's debut in Baton Rouge was a 51-10 embarrassment of Clemson. It was 31-3 at halftime. It was Clemson's worst loss under Dabo Swinney. QB Sam Leavitt, the Arizona State transfer, ran for 113 yards and two scores on 12 carries in his first game as a Tiger, and the LSU defense held Clemson to 145 total yards.
Our fair odds on LSU went from +1441 last week to +672 this week, taking them from a 6.5% chance to win it all up to 13.0%.
And here's where most bettors are going to get this wrong. Last week you could get LSU at +3000 at Circa. This week the best number is +1700 at Bally. If you were only watching the odds, you'd think you missed the boat.
You didn't. Last week that bet was worth +101.5% EV. This week it's worth 133.2%. DraftKings, Circa and BetOnline are all still parked at +1400 with FanDuel at +1500 and BetMGM at +1600, which means every recreational sportsbook on our board is +EV on LSU right now.
But this schedule is a monster. LSU is awaiting five ranked opponents, starting with a road trip to No. 9 Ole Miss in Week 3 and No. 8 Texas A&M the week after that. Then it's No. 13 Alabama, No. 5 Texas, and a road game at No. 20 Tennessee to close November.
However, that can work both ways too. Nobody in the country will have more opportunities to pocket quality wins than the Tigers. In a 12-team playoff, even a two-loss SEC team with wins over Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Alabama is getting in. The committee isn’t afraid to consider who you beat rather than how often you lost.