Compute the average profit of a bet given its true win probability.
Your estimate of the true chance the bet wins
Expected Value ($)—
Expected Value (%)—
What is the Expected Value?
Expected value (EV) is the single most important number in betting: the average amount you win or lose per bet if you could place it thousands of times. Positive EV bets make money long-term regardless of any single result. The hard part is the win probability — get it from de-vigging a sharp book's line (use the No-Vig calculator) rather than gut feel.
How to use it
1.Enter your stake and the odds you're being offered.
2.Enter the true win probability — the no-vig probability from the sharpest available line.
3.Positive EV means the bet is profitable long-term; the percentage is your edge.
Example
$100 at +110 with a true win probability of 52.4% (the fair probability of a -110 line) has an EV of +$10 — a 10% edge.
